This is not an exact way to figure it out but is a cheat sheet that I learned:
In this case you have 8 outs... 4 for top and 4 for bottom for a total of 8. You take your outs and multiply by the number of cards left to be dealt. So since u still have the turn and the river = 8 puts x 2 cards left = 16. The you take that number x 2 for your percentage whic is 16 *2 = 32%.
It would be 16% on the turn. -> 16 *1 = 16%
Another example:
If you had a flush draw on flop using 2 cards on board would mean 9 outs. 9*2 *2 = 36%
Anyone else have any methods of computing this info?
In this case you have 8 outs... 4 for top and 4 for bottom for a total of 8. You take your outs and multiply by the number of cards left to be dealt. So since u still have the turn and the river = 8 puts x 2 cards left = 16. The you take that number x 2 for your percentage whic is 16 *2 = 32%.
It would be 16% on the turn. -> 16 *1 = 16%
Another example:
If you had a flush draw on flop using 2 cards on board would mean 9 outs. 9*2 *2 = 36%
Anyone else have any methods of computing this info?
I will take a stab at it:
after the flop you have 8 outs there are 47 cards that you haven't seen:
so your chance on the turn is 8/47 = 17.0%
if you don't hit the turn, you still have 8 outs to the river, with 46 unseen cards
8/46 = 17.4%
so your total chance is both of these together: 17.0 +17.4 = 34.4%
This is obviously not totally right though, the wizard of odds site claims 31.45%, and I definitely belive him over me (but I am right with the 17.4% on the river)
after the flop you have 8 outs there are 47 cards that you haven't seen:
so your chance on the turn is 8/47 = 17.0%
if you don't hit the turn, you still have 8 outs to the river, with 46 unseen cards
8/46 = 17.4%
so your total chance is both of these together: 17.0 +17.4 = 34.4%
This is obviously not totally right though, the wizard of odds site claims 31.45%, and I definitely belive him over me (but I am right with the 17.4% on the river)
alright after thinking about it, here is the real way to figure it
you have your 8/47 hitting on the turn 17%
now: the chance of it not hitting on the turn is 39/47...83%, ONLY if it doesn't hit on the turn can you hit it on the river. So there is an 83% chance that you will still need a draw on the river, so multiply this 83% chance times the chance that it hits on the river (8/46 = 17.4%)
83% X 17.4% = 14.4%
so add the turn plus the river chances together now 17% + 14.4% = 31.4%
this is the correct way to do it.
you have your 8/47 hitting on the turn 17%
now: the chance of it not hitting on the turn is 39/47...83%, ONLY if it doesn't hit on the turn can you hit it on the river. So there is an 83% chance that you will still need a draw on the river, so multiply this 83% chance times the chance that it hits on the river (8/46 = 17.4%)
83% X 17.4% = 14.4%
so add the turn plus the river chances together now 17% + 14.4% = 31.4%
this is the correct way to do it.
drunkguy said:
Thanks DG. I never attempted to figure the exact %. I was giving a way to make a ball park estimate for the mathmatically challegened. I got the system I use from a Jenifer Harmon ariticle. It can be mastered in a session and It's good to see that i was only off by .6.
#outs X (Cards to be dealt) X 2
oldirtyku said:
I wonder if that holds up under all cicumstances? Obviously you can't do the long math sitting at a poker table.
It might be handy to print out the following and put it near your computer when playing. It is from www.wizardofodds.com
also gives you the pot odds required to call, very handy chart
Thanks for the chart. I will use it for my online play
Yes. I belive this works for all hands. I need this more for my lives games as I have to be able to do the math in my head in a short period of time without error. I got the system from full tilt poker article. It was actually Clonie Gowen article not a Jen Harmon. This formula will help in live action as it is easy to use. The next thing I am trying to figure out is an easy way to calculate pot odds vs % chance of hitting a draw. Like is calling a bet worth the money in the pot.
Take care. Hope this helps out.
http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/proLessons.php?lesson=2
Lesson: 2
A Way To Approximate The Odds
Clonie Gowen
March 21, 2005
It is very difficult to calculate the exact odds of hitting a drawing hand when you're sitting at the poker table. Unless you're a genius with a gift for mathematics like Chris Ferguson, you will not be able to do it. That leaves two options for the rest of us: The first option is to sit at home with a calculator, figure out the odds for every possible combination of draws, and then memorize them. That way, no matter what situation comes up, you always know the odds. But for those of us without a perfect memory, there's an easier way. Here is a simple trick for estimating those odds.
The first thing you need to do is to figure out how many "outs" you have. An "out" is any card that gives you a made hand. To do this, simply count the number of cards available that give the hand you are drawing to. For example: suppose you hold Ac 8c and the flop comes Qh 9c 4c. You have a flush draw. There are thirteen clubs in the deck and you are looking at four of them -- the two in your hand, and the two on the board. That leaves nine clubs left in the deck, and two chances to hit one.
The trick to figuring out the approximate percentage chance of hitting the flush is to multiply your outs times the number of chances to hit it. In this case that would be nine outs multiplied by two chances, or eighteen. Then take that number, multiply times two, and add a percentage sign. The approximate percentage of the time you will make the flush is 36%. (The exact percentage is 34.97%.) Now let's say that on that same flop you hold the Jd Th. In this case you would have an open ended straight draw with eight outs to hit the straight (four kings and four eights). Eight outs with two cards to come gives you sixteen outs. Multiply times two and you will hit the straight approximately 32% (31.46% exactly) of the time.
One important thing to keep in mind is that the percentage stated is merely the percentage of the time that you will hit the hand you are drawing to, NOT the percentage of time that you will win the pot. You may hit your hand and still lose. In the first example, the Qc will pair the board and may give somearticle a full house. In the second example both the Kc and the 8c will put a possible flush on the board, giving you the straight, but not necessarily the winning hand. Still, knowing the approximate likelihood of making your hand is a good beginning step on the road to better poker.
Yes. I belive this works for all hands. I need this more for my lives games as I have to be able to do the math in my head in a short period of time without error. I got the system from full tilt poker article. It was actually Clonie Gowen article not a Jen Harmon. This formula will help in live action as it is easy to use. The next thing I am trying to figure out is an easy way to calculate pot odds vs % chance of hitting a draw. Like is calling a bet worth the money in the pot.
Take care. Hope this helps out.
http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/proLessons.php?lesson=2
Lesson: 2
A Way To Approximate The Odds
Clonie Gowen
March 21, 2005
It is very difficult to calculate the exact odds of hitting a drawing hand when you're sitting at the poker table. Unless you're a genius with a gift for mathematics like Chris Ferguson, you will not be able to do it. That leaves two options for the rest of us: The first option is to sit at home with a calculator, figure out the odds for every possible combination of draws, and then memorize them. That way, no matter what situation comes up, you always know the odds. But for those of us without a perfect memory, there's an easier way. Here is a simple trick for estimating those odds.
The first thing you need to do is to figure out how many "outs" you have. An "out" is any card that gives you a made hand. To do this, simply count the number of cards available that give the hand you are drawing to. For example: suppose you hold Ac 8c and the flop comes Qh 9c 4c. You have a flush draw. There are thirteen clubs in the deck and you are looking at four of them -- the two in your hand, and the two on the board. That leaves nine clubs left in the deck, and two chances to hit one.
The trick to figuring out the approximate percentage chance of hitting the flush is to multiply your outs times the number of chances to hit it. In this case that would be nine outs multiplied by two chances, or eighteen. Then take that number, multiply times two, and add a percentage sign. The approximate percentage of the time you will make the flush is 36%. (The exact percentage is 34.97%.) Now let's say that on that same flop you hold the Jd Th. In this case you would have an open ended straight draw with eight outs to hit the straight (four kings and four eights). Eight outs with two cards to come gives you sixteen outs. Multiply times two and you will hit the straight approximately 32% (31.46% exactly) of the time.
One important thing to keep in mind is that the percentage stated is merely the percentage of the time that you will hit the hand you are drawing to, NOT the percentage of time that you will win the pot. You may hit your hand and still lose. In the first example, the Qc will pair the board and may give somearticle a full house. In the second example both the Kc and the 8c will put a possible flush on the board, giving you the straight, but not necessarily the winning hand. Still, knowing the approximate likelihood of making your hand is a good beginning step on the road to better poker.
